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PIQscore Bats a Sizzling .918 in its First Presidential Election

Profile photo of PIQ Score Staff By piqscorestaff
November 7th, 2012

PIQscore, the unique prediction model for “Personal Inclination Quotients” and Presidential election races, correctly predicted the election results for 45 of 49 states in the 2012 President Election, validating the methodology used to analyze political outcomes.  With just 58.2% of eligible voters casting their ballots – down from 61.6% in 2008 – the overall results were:

  • Though he received 3.5 million fewer votes than in 2008, in all 20 states in which the PIQscore model predicted Barrack Obama would win reelection, he succeeded in doing so.  Those states had PIQscores ranging from PIQ-12 (Washington D.C.) to PIQ-49 (New Jersey and Michigan.)
  • Of the 29 states that PIQscore model predicted would be won by GOP challenger Mitt Romney, Romney won 23 (82%).   Romney – and the PIQscore model – appeared to have been vexed by low GOP voter turnout.
  • The model did not foresee statistically-improbable Obama upsets in Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire and Nevada (all PIQ-54), Colorado (PIQ-53), or Ohio (PIQ-52).  These were states in which Obama’s thin average margin of victory (51.1% overall) beat the PIQscore model projection.  60 Electoral Votes – in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia – were awarded to Presideny Obama, despite his garnering less than 51% of the vote.

              State                  EVs           PIQScore           Obama%             Margin

Florida              27                PIQ-54                50.0%                 74,309

Ohio                  20                PIQ-52                50.1%               166,277

Virginia             13                PIQ-54                50.8%               149,298

Colorado           9                 PIQ-53                51.2%               137,858

Nevada              5                 PIQ-54                52.3%                 67,806

New                   4                 PIQ-54                52.2%                 39,643
Hampshire

Of  21.8 million votes cast for the two candidates in these states, Obama won 11,261,321 and Romney won 10,626,130… a difference of a mere 635,191.

  • The model also accurately predicted that two states – New Mexico and West Virgina – with absolute median PIQScores”] of PIQ-50 – would be toss-ups; and as predicted, these were split between the two candidates: Obama took New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes) and West Virginia (also 5 Electoral Votes).

 

 

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 7th, 2012 at 5:40 PM and is filed under 2012 Presidential Elections.

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